missing 411: the hunted cases missing 411: the hunted cases

I certainly wouldnt be surprised if these were more common for Missing 411 cases than in the general population or among normal park visitors, though it would be interesting to see exactly how much more or less common they are for normal disappearances in the same areas. If a person disappeared from a place like a pub, then the perpetrators were either lying in wait on the location, possibly cooperating with whoever is operating the establishment, or they were again following the target person beforehand and waited for him to go to a social event. As I was listening to various cryptid-related podcasts and shows, I have also encountered mentions of a possible conflict raging between bigfoot and dogmen/skinwalkers. Taken all together, as I will try to explain shortly, no single normal or paranormal hypothesis explains all of the cases, meaning that either multiple are at play, or a one so crazy that no one, including Dave, has even been able to conceive of it yet. What an apt name, by the way, SADS. Think of reading a missing persons newspaper section with key adjectives sprinkled in. This is a fairly strong profile point, given that there is no good explanation, conventional or otherwise, for why or how any of this should happen at all. Missing 411- David Paulides Presents Cases from Minnesota (Stateley), Yosemite and Alaska (Perkowski) Canam Missing Project. Conventionally speaking, this should be a waste of time, since it basically amounts to following coin tosses. In this light, it would only be strange if the person who felt unwell then traveled huge distance, which would be incongruous, or if the person was later found alive and healthy, but with no memory of what happened. Especially in the one case when the phone was later found shattered into a million pieces. Regarding this profile point, I tend to agree with a number of people who say that Dave overestimates the weirdness of people leaving essential items behind, as you can easily do that when you dont think youll be gone long or when you just have a standard brain fart. When picking mushrooms or berries, a group of people typically stays within hearing range, which means that all you need to do to not get lost is being able to shout (or shoot, I guess). Again without anyone seeing the body get in. The reason why to wait for that could be that it is much less suspicious for a person to disappear while out drinking at night in the city than if they just left their house for no reason in the middle of the night. There are cases where a wolf man-type being was described as the one who kidnapped the target, they could be easily able to control dogs and likely to respect them more than humans, and if the shapeshifting into dogs is on the table, they could get around any human settlements, including urban areas, undetected. It makes for good storytelling, and beyond that, its important to understand that everyone has a bias. Here are the most significant repeating profile points with my critical commentary as to their potential strengths and shortcomings: According to Paulides, every person should be found, especially if they are a small child or if theyre mentally or physically disabled and therefore presumably unable to travel long distances. My critical point of view is that this is a nice sentiment, and youd want to have searchers with this attitude looking for you, but there is a number of conceivable conventional scenarios in which it would be very possible that the person would be exceedingly difficult to find or unlikely to be found. Similarly, as I have heard someone theorize, you may want to remove their shoes first so that they cant run away from you very easily, or maybe youd steal their clothing so that they more quickly succumb to the elements if they somehow ran away from wherever youre holding them thats presumably some kind of shelter, base, or vehicle. After all, thats how a sudden health crisis or mental break would start. Comparison is key. scientists or drones, in order to hide from humanity, youd need a place where you can hide. But its true that on the other, more paranoid hand, if the storms are somehow being caused (or foreseen and taken advantage of) to thwart searches, them succeeding in thwarting searches is not a disqualifying factor. This type of research is frequently used in not only social science in order to formulate hypotheses, or in this case a criminal profile. Missing 411: The Hunted. There are so many comparisons that need to be made, and for that you need numbers. How often you run into people with the same first name or surname as you is a function of how rare it is. If you want to get added as an author, contact me via my Twitter handle @Nartimar. There are multiple instances of Starfleet observing pre-warp civilizations (which it is not allowed to interfere with due to the Prime Directive) from a secret base cloaked as part of a mountain. At the very least, it would require a vast, perfect conspiracy, and thats never a good go-to explanation. Furthermore, if I understand the abstract of the U.S. study correctly, 5% of autopsy reports in the U.S. list the cause of death as undetermined, even though the real number of undeterminable deaths is much lower than that. This is the fourth book in the blockbuster "Missing 411" series that describes unusual incidents of people that have disappeared in National Parks and forests of the world. Daves criteria for the sample selection seem completely reasonable to me a case being unexplained is an objective fact. The. And yes, I also rewatched Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency, obviously. Any government can do that already. If there is evidence that something weird was going on with the dog, thats the part that should be focused on, in my opinion presence of inexplicable evidence is always more interesting than a correlation alone. Speaking of bizarre and inexplicable, these books and documentaries describe a growing number of cases (now in the low thousands) of people going missing or being found under strange circumstances. If the point was that you need to work with or study specific genetic markers, given that Germans are, ironically, one of the least genetically pure groups in the world. This one focuses a lot on hunters, people that typically know what they're doing in the woods / wouldn't do something stupid resulting in their disappearance. In any event, I believe that Dave is correctly focusing on the cases where the most inexplicable travel speeds or distances took place. Coincidence is how gods can circumvent rules. This is the 2nd doc in the missing 411 series surrounding people disappearing in the wilderness for no reason. But even then, dogs can simply fail in some cases, meaning that this profile point alone is never truly a conclusive proof of something unusual going on with the case. What I would say does seem obviously wrong are for example the cases of water-related disappearances and deaths in urban areas, where the young white male students figure in almost all of them. Especially since weird perception and memory issues are common among the Missing 411 cases. If a criminal group with the same unusual means and methods of abducting people in a forest setting is taking advantage of bad weather to kidnap and do god knows what with people in the same unusual ways, then the bad weather compromising searches should correlate more often with cases that contain other unusual elements to them than with normal cases of people going missing in a forest. This is why it seems very suspicious to me that in Missing 411 cases, the majority of people who are found alive have amnesia and only a minority reports something strange happening. This can be a standalone subset of cases. The exotic options would all be variations on the person entering some sort of portal or spacetime warp or legitimately teleporting. Missing 411- North America and Beyond, 2013. In 2019 David Produced and starred in his second documentary, Missing 411- The Hunted, a film about a series of missing hunters. Otherwise, literally only the Nazis would care about this. Then again, at this point, its not much more than entertaining fiction. Thats how learning works. An isolated concurrence so unlikely that its suspicious by itself. Yes, under these specific circumstances, things like temporal displacement start sounding more likely than dozens of searchers missing an obvious corpse dozens of times. The person could have intentionally vanished. Maybe some of the people who died had an allergic reaction to whatever method of incapacitation or memory wipe was used. The latter possibility would imply that even if there werent significantly many of them within the sample in comparison to all people or all park visitors, there may be a specific, several centuries-old genetic reason or personal grudge involved. Some have their remains found miles away from where they disappeared from, others are gone without a trace. A) the terrain is incredibly difficult to search 100% due to rocks, deadfall etc. And even then, there often still should have been enough time to use the phone to report or record what happened. These are mainly the German connection, the religion connection, and the military connection, or a combination of two or all three. However, the understanding that there is such a connection between naming conventions and occurrence of a particular type of disappearance could be used as a lead to determine which places to investigate, either with priority, more thoroughly, or further back into the past. Thats roughly a bit odd to the fourth power. Scientists do this all the time. Cherry-picking in this context would be for example assuming that Bigfoot is taking all these people, and then looking for all the cases in which the missing person seems to have been mysteriously abducted, and ONLY such cases. Here, you could have 500 in a 1,000. I could also go on and on, but I think this is more than enough for now. I think the issue is that Dave by default rules out cases in which they would have made an error. Like to teleport. While phenomena of this type are not strictly speaking ruled out by theoretical physicists, they would at the very least expect them to be substantially more rare, if they were to occur strictly naturally. Maybe, just maybe, dogs are behind it all. Maybe there are more younger and older people visiting the parks in general, maybe its more of a white or specifically German cultural thing in general, maybe people with disabilities, geniuses, or athletes should be over-represented. The German language also isnt particularly unique, as it exists on a continuum with a number of other European languages that are all similar. should be considered irrelevant in the absence of additional inexplicable positive evidence. However, if you are running some sort of medical experiment, the three most logical things to do are to get a DNA sample (ideally reproductive cells), to perform a neurological exam, and to get a stool sample, which includes the gut bacteria. But I totally agree with Dave that the disappearing-while-on-the-phone stuff is weird. After that, the entities could have panicked, tried and failed to save him, did their best to dress him without his help (as normally, they would perhaps make him dress himself), and dumped him from the air to the top of the nearest pile, perhaps because of the absence of local natural peaks or mountains. The science is almost there. In case youve never heard of this series of books written by an American ex-detective David Paulides, I believe theres eight of them at the moment, plus two documentary movies. Dave have made some comments over the years that indicate that he initially didnt believe that paradoxical undressing is an actual thing that happens, but after he got predictably criticized for it, he appears to understand it better now. This is a tough one because on one hand, I would like to believe Dave that trackers are by and large good enough to always find things like signs of struggle, but on the other hand, no one is perfect. Connection: Directed by David Paulides. Theres bound to be some sort of infrastructure for this, especially since it is a global phenomenon and since having the staff of the establishment where you want to disappear someone on your side or having infiltrated the school which your potential targets attend would make everything much easier. The latter option seems especially plausible, since in none of the recorded calls were any of the victims able to relay any coherent, useful information. As a person from the Czech Republic, where picking mushrooms is a national pastime more so than in most other countries, this is puzzling to me. My theory regarding coincidences is that if you have a sufficiently complete knowledge, you can use it to communicate with people or steer them using coincidences (by manipulating irrelevant details of situations around them so that only they will notice that something noteworthy is going on). Thankfully, though it would explain why you would remove someones clothing, we can rule out the sexual motive, as theres no evidence that this type of attack is what the Missing 411 cases are about. The whole idea of the movie The Prestige about rival illusionists is that the most impossible magic trick is teleportation. Not to sound too alien-abductiony, but some type of medical examination or procedure would make the most sense. Taken together, it is safe to assume that the men in question have something going on with their appearance, like advanced camouflage or perception-altering ability. The longer this series of deaths goes on globally, the less likely it is that its all just a result of someones bad or good luck. The main analytical problem with using this as a profile point is that while it is a good place to start, the fact that the person wasnt found is a better indicator of which variables prevent people from being found, more than it is an indicator of why or how they got lost in the first place. The fact that phones today double as GPS locators and that they can record both audio and video and be connected to the internet at all times makes urban disappearances of people with phones suspicious. Perhaps an evidence of that could be uncovered for some of the cases, for example by checking any street footage for suspicious vehicles outside of the victims residence. Whats weird is that this is not happening in all of the parks equally, suggesting that a thorough comparison should be made. 1 hr 37 mins. Its basically just as magic as teleportation. Forests being bigger and unmarked could certainly be an issue, just like the number and type of local predators or overall crime rates in the area, and maybe thats something that should be statistically analyzed using data that I dont have at the moment (comparing forests where people go missing versus those where they dont go missing based on these criteria). The reason why amnesia always seems contrived in TV shows and movies when used more than minimally is that it is rare in real life. The available data that connects the water-related cases together (mainly the ones of students being found dead in water in some college cities) makes them somehow more inexplicable than the cases of people who got lost in a forest and were never found (cases in which all data is missing). And sure, tests have to be named something and there is a limited number of letters in the alphabet. You have no reason to want their poop, specifically. Or it could be a sign of a design artifact, like when many bad guys in our fictional worlds contain Mal in their name, or how many hero names can be abbreviated as JC. At its core, Missing411 is the vague claim that something unusual is occurring related to deaths and disappearances in national parks. This includes a number of cases of divers not finding the body, but random people on the shore finding it afterwards. All 185 cases fit a narrowly defined profile that was refined after researching thousands of missing person reports; these cases are the most difficult, defy common sense, challenge conventional wisdom and remain . The ideal places to build bases would be at the bottom of the ocean or under beautiful sacred mountains, given that the former is still much less explored than the surface of the Moon and Mars, and that the latter is about the last place where humans would start a large-scale, invasive digging operation. Given that this is perhaps the most consistent profile point, it could be a key one, but there are some nuanced considerations that should be made. A good enough guess should allow you to try to force and maximize the coincidence by removing all normal ways of the expected manipulation happening naturally. Paulides has written a series of books under the title, "Missing 411." the books detail hundreds of these cases and locations. In a normal sample of deaths, youd expect roughly 500 unexplained deaths in 500,000. Then again, the alternatives dont exactly seem to be comforting, as they range up to Lovecraftian. If an area has been searched dozens of times, chances are the search was sufficient. In contrast, hallucinations should be much more common. [1] [2] Early life and career The main two cases involving multiple odd coincidences are the disappearance of Dennis Martin and the death of Elisa Lam. The forests that are not protected have much less regulated traffic, much lower biodiversity, are much more likely to be randomly cut down or otherwise messed with, and likely lack continuity to ancient times. Especially if the body wasnt even found by dedicated searchers, but by random hikers or passersby after the search was over. Thats why it is so important to not ignore this data, but instead compile it and look for discrepancies between the normal distribution and Missing 411 distribution of times and dates of disappearances on a large enough sample that will therefore give it sufficient statistical significance and reliability. Which brings me to some practical reasons why you would undress a person that you have kidnapped. I await suggestions. If these coincidences seem pedestrian or contrived to you, brace yourself. If there already was a history of people getting lost or being found dead hundreds of years ago, maybe there always were hunting grounds of local predators, maybe there always was a settlement of local wild men, or maybe something about the natural environment itself was always potentially deadly to visitors. The person could have fallen into some hard-to-access crevice or got buried. All of the profile points should be quantified and the exact numbers published in tables, ideally in comparison with relevant control samples. When a Smith family runs into a Smith family, its probably no big deal. Given that brain damage is almost never involved even in the cases where the Missing 411 subjects were found dead, theres no good explanation for high incidence of amnesia. I do agree with Dave that it is safe to assume that places typically get named for a reason, especially if the name sounds ominous, like Devils, Demons, or Hells something or other. Malevolent gods could theoretically use it to mislead us, but I bet that malevolent gods have a less perfect awareness and more of a self-centered, narrow viewpoint on things. Like mentions of reports of bigfoot on one of the U.S. coasts attacking dogs (in one episode of the On the Trail of Bigfoot series), or a description of an area where there were almost exclusively bigfoot reports on one side of a road going through a forest, and almost exclusively dogman reports on the other (on The Venomous Fringe podcast). Specifically, either cryptids known as dogmen, or some version of skinwalkers who can shapeshift into canine forms. When I say strange, what I mean is that, for starters, all of the usual suspects have been ruled out, like animal predation, human crime, voluntary disappearance, drowning, etc. Maybe names are not random, but to an extent generated with an audience to appreciate them in mind. If I think about how likely it is that this profile point signifies something unusual, the inside-out clothing is very hard to explain away, but the brightly colored clothing may have a mundane explanation. These could have involved a more invasive examination or procedure focused on the brain, and while they fortunately seem rare, especially to the extreme of cow mutilations, there are such cases. This is also one of the profile points that may simply cause people not to be found, at all or in time to save the person, reversing the causality. In the Daves profile, whoever the perpetrators are seem to be perfect, but no one is 100% effective. Exceptionally odd circumstances surround the disappearance. But theres more. Hunters have been disappearing from North American wildlands for hundreds of years, many without leaving a trace. On this count, I would very much like Dave to publish exact tables showing how significant (meaning frequent) each of the correlating factors is in the Missing 411 sample of cases, ideally in comparison to tables of what is normal for a representative sample of normal missing persons cases. Its also unusual for such high percentage of adults to remember what happened, but then not report it, to not even make anything up, which would be the only normal alternative explanation. With all the insults out of the way, lets look at the profile points. Errors can be corrected. Its also unusual that it seems that its young children who much more often tend to remember and report anything, as opposed to adults. On the most basic level, it makes a lot of sense for a predator of any type or motivation to pick either easy targets (like kids, the disabled, the elderly, or less well-armed hunters), or exceptional targets (for the thrill, challenge, or some kind of interrogative or research value), so these attributes should be expected. In the last act, a twist no one saw . All 185 cases fit a narrowly defined profile that was refined after researching thousands of missing person reports; these cases are the most difficult, defy common sense, challenge conventional wisdom and remain . When Paulides subtitled one of his book A Sobering Coincidence, Im pretty sure that he was talking about correlations elements of the cases repeating in multiple cases. Ask Sherlock Holmes. Its important to understand that when youre working against an intelligent adversary, they will try to use your statistical reasoning against you, not doing anything too frequently, so that you brush it all off as a mere coincidence, normal chance. Overall, the cases that he selected seem to correctly rule out normal cases based on details like there not being low-enough temperatures at all, people getting undressed too quickly after disappearing (before the cold could have set in), or people traveling absurdly long distances after they removed some articles of their clothing, especially if that included shoes or boots in rough terrain. Which sometimes happens in the Missing 411 cases, without any good reason. This invokes a motivation or mentality that either has something to do with genetics or culture, or a specific grudge. Better yet, there are a few cases in which the body was reported to be completely frozen, in a non-freezing environment. Much like it is with the other inexplicable details of the typical state in which the bodies in these cases keep being found, no identifiable cause of death theoretically is a solid profile point a positive evidence of something unusual going on. Id wager that afternoon is the time during which forests see the highest levels of traffic. In case you were wondering what Ive been doing for the last couple of months instead of writing articles here, I guess you could call it research. And it is what profiling is, in a way youre looking for cases that include selected elements. Put simply, this profile point is something that makes it harder to find a missing person and easier for people to get more lost. Like, you just wont believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly unlikely it is, but thats all that is unlikely, not impossible. Because of this predictable universal connection, this profile point by itself doesnt necessarily mean anything strange on its own. People dont have good reasons to lie down on their faces and Paulides is correct to point out that corpses in water can offer a lot of reliable information about the deceased person. Missing 411-Western U.S.- 2011. While static city cameras could be known about and avoided, there dont seem to be any related deaths of potential witnesses, who statistically speaking must keep bumping randomly into these people entering the water. After all, if there is an intelligent perpetrator behind at least some of these cases, they can be smart enough not to kidnap and kill too many people. Ignoring mind control for now (which is technically doable with advanced enough technology that we are already developing), someone who can remotely scan or edit brains can probably also stop someones heart with a more advanced version of taser. I would just say that if the two samples have very similar distributions of the times at which people disappear, its likely that theres nothing to it other than people get lost at the times at which they tend to be on a hike. The proportion of the two should be inverse. Of course, that says nothing about who these aliens are, only that theyre organized. Not only that, the burn marks were treated by an unidentifiable ointment and the cause of death was a massive heart attack.