It would be the biggest increase since the OCR was introduced in 1999 - and there is still a real chance New Zealand could fall into a recession. release dates are:Monetary Policy Statement / day after the monetary policy announcement. Sign up to our free email newsletters here. The 2021 release dates are: Monetary Policy Statement / Official Cash Rate announcements 24 February - OCR & MPS Media conference & live-stream 14 April - OCR 26 May - OCR & MPS. here. Last year, the RBNZs response to the COVID-19 pandemic aimed to push interest rates within the economy significantly lower, including mortgage rates. advance. below. While there are positive signs that inflation is no longer increasing, it remains well above the Reserve Bank remit to keep inflation between 1% and 3% on average over the medium term. The hardest thing in the world to understand is the income tax. In return, we'll give your team access to pro news tools and keep Scoop free for personal use, because we believe public access to news is important! If the economy slows down, the cash rate may be cut to support increased borrowing and spending and boost economic growth. +64 (0)9 307 1629, RBNZ expected to show some leniency in next OCR announcement, The RBNZ is set to deliver the announcement on Wednesday, with a mid-tier raise. If you are unsure you should get independent advice before you apply for any product or commit to any plan. We noticed that you're using an ad blocker. Achilles House Market On 6 October, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released its Monetary Policy Review, announcing an increase in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 0.25% to 0.5%. With earnings season in full swing, it might be easy to forget the Reserve Bankis also scheduled to make the first official cash rate (OCR) announcement of the new year this week. Kate McVicar Mon, 20 Feb 2023. Should the Government 'force banks to provide it with interest-free loans' to recoup some RBNZ QE losses? While we receive compensation when you click links to partners, they do not influence our content. Please appreciate that there may be other options available to you than the products, providers or services covered by our service. With earnings season in full swing, it might be easy to forget the Reserve Bank is also scheduled to make the first official cash rate (OCR) announcement of the new year this week. Previous guidance, outstanding inflation challenge. Official Cash Rate (OCR) decisions, and the six-monthly Term deposit rates have started to increase, at last. Infometrics economists mull quantitative easing in 2020. Steps to owning and managing Credit Suisse Group, with 24-hour and historical pricing before you buy. For the last few months, longer term fixed mortgage rates have already been lifting in line with wholesale interest rates. new rule for the release dates of MPS and OCR decisions, The current forecast says the Official Cash Rate (OCR) could peak as high as 5.5% as the RBNZ continues its battle against rampant inflation, which would mean weve got another 1.25% to climb from the current level. ANZ's Business Outlook in March found inflation could be "moon-bound" given that nearly all surveyed businesses expected higher costs in the coming months, which flows on to increases in prices for consumers. conflicts with other important releases or events. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable mortgages.If the rate holdsBecause your rate is fixed for an agreed period, a decision by the RBNZ to hold wont have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. "Normally, near-term downside growth risks are a recipe for at least caution on the part of central banks, if not outright largesse. 28 February 2022 Last modified date: 20 April 2023 Monetary Policy Statements and Financial Stability Reports Announcements and release dates We publish: all upcoming announcements relating to monetary policy decisions release dates for upcoming monetary policy statements and financial stability reports links to decisions and news releases. . Video [WATCH] Bolton changes views on DTIs, thinks LVRs need to be wound back, [WATCH] Bolton changes views on DTIs, thinks LVRs need to be wound back, Fishers's Marlin caught in US bank collapse, New and cheaper PI insurance hits the market, Lawyer petitions for probate tweak on KiwiSaver funds. If youve taken the time to make sure you are in the right fund or investment to meet your goals, you shouldnt need to change your strategy. Official Cash Rate announcements 24 February Expert analysis and predictions for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's OCR decisions. Compare accounts and ensure youre aware of whats on offer in the market. OCR announcement dates for 2023 After a period of much-needed respite over the holiday break, the RBNZ will be back to its regularly scheduled programming from late February. It's predicting a 50 basis point increase, which would be the largest increase to the OCR since May 2000. New Zealands biggest banks ANZ, ASB, Kiwibank, BNZ, and Westpac were all tipping an increase of 0.75%. As the economy has recovered, the need for extremely low interest rates has reduced, and the process of raising the OCR has begun. Create a SUPPORTER account with no ads If they dont pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if youre still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. If your fixed-rate mortgage is to end soon, start comparing what deals are on offer, so you dont find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate. Bond traders are betting against the Reserve Bank, NZD shows notable underperformance, weaker on all the crosses, RBNZ's shock 50bps hike has back-fired; NZ rates mainly lower as market prices in eventual policy reversal, Of Interest Podcast: Profits not responsible for inflation, NZIER economist says, BNZ's Toplis: There was no need for the RBNZ to 'go like a bull at a gate', USD well supported on safe haven flows; NZD/USD fully reverses. The five-year term deposit rate has more than doubled, from 1% to over 2% (at the time of writing). dates for 2021 will be published at least one year in Buying your first home, next home, investing in property or just keen to review your mortgage? Media conferences will be held following the the Reserve Bank reserves the right to make changes to this "The Reserve Bank is between something of a rock and a hard place," ANZ said in its report. finder.com is an independent comparison platform and information service that aims to provide you with the tools you need to make better decisions. Analysts at CoreLogic said the outlook for interest rates remained stable for now, but borrowers may look to lock in longer-term rates, amid a growing expectation of higher interest rates in the next 18 months. Still, there are signs of a tentative shift in tone," the group's economists said. And borrowers can lock in incredibly low long-term interest rates (around 3% to 3.7%) now if interest rate certainty over a longer period is of the utmost importance, the ASB economists wrote on the report. Copyright Squirrel Group Limited 2023. They will be "On the one hand, the path ahead for the economy is looking anything but smooth, with house prices falling and consumer confidence pummelled as household budgets are squeezed. The Official Cash Rate, or OCR as it's usually referred to, was cut to just 0.25% in March 2020 - the lowest it's ever been. How? For each of the past five increases, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has hiked the OCR by 50 basis points. This guide provides step-by-step instructions on how to buy FLOKI Inu, lists some exchanges where you can get it and provides daily price data on (FLOKI). Your rate wont change because its locked in, but if youre nearing the end of your term, start comparing both high-interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal. Under this new rule: MPS - MPS and OCR reviews, and at 9am for FSRs on the dates listed Financial Stability I believe the RBNZ will hike in February and April, and then pause. media would be given as much notice as possible. ASB has released its forecasts on the official cash rate (OCR) and mortgage rates ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand 's (RBNZ) next . If they dont pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if youre still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market.If the rate holdsCompare other variable-rate mortgages to make sure youre still getting the best deal. Or, your browser is blocking ad display with its settings. The official cash rate now sits at 4.25%, the highest in 14 years. Meanwhile, ASB is forecasting a more cautious 25 basis point jump, but isn't ruling out the possibility of a larger increase. $35 per user - Pay by monthly live-streamed on the Reserve Banks website. Our daily newsletter is FREE and keeps you up to date with the world of mortgage. The growth assets like property and shares are influenced by the broad economic backdrop and that includes interest rates. How strong they will be depends on the RBNZ's assessment on inflation developments, so we might see a slowing down in the magnitude of the increases, but increases are still on the agenda. Our daily newsletter is FREE and keeps you up to date with the world of mortgage. The Reserve Bank has double-pumped the Official Cash Rate with its surprise 50 basis point hike in an effort to blindside the markets. ASB expects more OCR increases over the year ahead; we think the OCR will rise from its new setting of 0.5%, to 1.5% by the end of 2022. StatsNZ revealed in January that inflation in the year to December 2021 had hit 5.9 percent, the highest annual increase since 1990. ", 'Not going away': Kiwis need tighter budgets as retailers plan price increases - economist, Copyright 2023 Discovery NZ Limited (Warner Bros. I think enough is done already as inflation will begin to ease. The Reserve Bank reserves the right to make changes to this schedule, if required. The RBNZ has itself forecast (in its May Monetary Policy Statement) a peak in the OCR of just under 4% by the middle of next year. Published date: 16 February 2023 Last modified date: 22 February 2023 Timeline of our OCR announcements since November 1999 See our chart of OCR announcements Official Cash Rate (OCR) (updated at end of month) Chart Summary There are risks to raising the OCR in large increments, mostly with the housing market, ANZ said, but "the RBNZ now has to play the hand it's got". The inflation and employment data have turned slightly, but not to an emphatic degree, yet. When the RBNZ gets closer to actually changing the OCR setting, the upward pressure will come on the shorter terms and floating rates too.. Banks website at least one year in The Reserve Bank is expected to hike the official cash rate (OCR) on Wednesday as New Zealand experiences the highest level of inflation in decades. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.If the rate risesFind an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.If the rate gets cutConsider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings dont suffer.If the rate holdsCarry out a quick comparison to make sure youre getting the best return on your money. Currently the OCR sits at 2.5% after the Reserve Bank's last announcement on July 13. The Reserve Bank will make an announcement on the official cash rate today with many economists expecting it to jump up to 50 basis points to 3%. change helps the Reserve Bank fully incorporate the most It also published a new OCR track which projects the OCR could rise from mid-2022, with gradual rises to 1.75% in 2024. ASB, ANZ, and BNZ also released their forecasts - expecting the OCR to reach 0.5% next month, according to Stuff.. ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the RBNZ had "clearly changed tack . Borrowers will be pleased to know we still expect mortgage interest rates to eventually settle over the next decade at levels well below the long-run averages of the past 20 years. What does it do? "A further 25 point nudge in the cash rate, accompanied by a stern warning that a more aggressive interest rate track will likely be forthcoming, when it releases its May Monetary Policy Statement, might be a better approach.". OCR 26 May - OCR & MPS Media conference & In its October review, the RBNZ did what we expected it would do: increase the OCR by 0.25%. 1010, Auckland, NZ, 0800 843 627 If National leads the next government, it's possible the merger of TVNZ and RNZ could be scrapped. In general, review dates will be continuously published on the Reserve USD broadly stronger. credit card debit, $25 per user - Pay by monthly See what promotions banks are offering.If the rate risesYour rate wont rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. The biggest problem at the moment is the government and mismanagement the management of the border has been a joke.. Copyright 1996-2023 KM Business Information NZ, ASB flooded with special home loan rate applications, ASB warned over responsible lending failures, Mortgage wars: ASB matches rivals with new home loan rates, Avanti Finance named best non-bank at the NZMAs, Kiwibank: Strong demand for labour remains, but will wane as the economy slows, FinPOWER appoints Australian general manager. Nikko Asset Management New Zealands head of equities Stu Williams on the week ahead. arises with other important releases or events. August, and November. OCR - Usually OCR BNZ sees signs of the economy rebalancing 28th Apr 23, 12:36pm by Dan Brunskill 28 BNZ chief economist Mike Jones thinks the RBNZ has made progress bringing the runaway economy back under control Tim Hazledine on potential new tools to help with the inflation fight For a few months back in 2020, economists were warning the OCR could go to the unprecedented rate of zero. NZD re-tests sub-0.62 level, NZIER's Christina Leung explains how higher interest rates are impacting New Zealand businesses and why profits aren't driving inflation, BNZ's head of research says the RBNZ should have opted for a smaller Official Cash Rate rise and caution that further rate rises might be needed; approach taken 'will most definitely generate heightened volatility', Weaker US ADP employment and services ISM data push US Treasury yields lower. But this time, one key thing is very, very different inflation.". Inflation pressures are not as bad as feared in November but still clearly too high, and its not clear that the RBNZ has done near enough yet. Learn about how the OCR has changed over time What is maximum sustainable employment Our Chief Economist explains why we increased the OCR Video transcript: Official Cash Rate (OCR) explainer Audio: Kia ora, I'm Paul Conway, Chief Economist at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The low interest rates both here and abroad have been very positive for shares and property over recent years, including the past 12 months. ads. Indeed, there could well be a slowly building trend for more borrowers to fix for longer periods in the coming months, to provide a hedge against rising rates.". That's far beyond the Reserve Bank's objective of keeping inflation between 1 and 3 percent on average while also supporting maximum sustainable employment. Join Scoop Pro New Zealand's official cash rate has been lifted to 3.5%, the Reserve Bank announced on Wednesday afternoon. OCR currently at 4.75% Next RBNZ OCR announcement: 05 April 2023 We asked our panel of experts to have their say on New Zealand's property market, the possible extension of the travel bubble, and more. "Inflation is far too high. See how the official cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, mortgages and what you can do about it.Variable (floating) mortgagesHigh interest saving accountsFixed-rate mortgagesTerm depositIf the rate risesAsk your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you wont be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed-rate mortgages to find a better deal.If the rate gets cutSee how your lender responds to the cut. On Wednesday, the RBNZ raised the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.5 percent. Do not reproduce in any form without permission, even if you have a paid subscription. John Bolton (pictured above left), founder of Squirrel Mortgages, said in his view a 75bps increase was too much. Moreover, forward economic indicators are weak. Like other central banks RBNZ is very likely to tighten the stance of monetary policy further. While the election campaign might be a close run race, dont expect it to be packed full of transformative policies and big dreams for the future of the nation, Kiwi households still being hit hard by food and mortgage interest rate costs, The country's mortgage interest bill is continuing to hit high spots, BNZ sees signs of the economy rebalancing, Tim Hazledine on potential new tools to help with the inflation fight, NZ rates and NZD fall after big downside miss to NZ CPI, Seven's not heaven: Our enduring inflation woes. As mentioned above, you still might want to monitor other deals in the market to keep informed.If the rate risesIf rates rise, savings accounts rates could increase as well. here. second Wednesday in April, July, and If you're already a Supporter, please use the If already paying more than the minimum payment on your home loan, drop payments to the minimum (if possible) if your budget is tight. finder.com compares a wide range of products, providers and services but we don't provide information on all available products, providers or services. implementation of the OCR will continue to be the working And firms' pricing intentions, which have been the best inflation indicator of all, are stratospheric and at this point, still rising.". Read More Major banks do U-turn, now expect no change in OCR - NZ Herald BNZ agrees it's a "coin toss" but is leaning towards 25 basis points as well. We think that's fair, because your organisation is benefiting from using our news resources. China credit growth strong, US Treasury yields higher after solid non-farm payrolls report; other labour market data show clearer weaker trends. MPS/OCR Search for our upcoming events here. 2020 remain unchanged. The new OCR is an increase of 50 basis points from the previous OCR of 3%. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so bear this in mind.If the rate gets cutYour rate wont change because its locked in, but if youre nearing the end of your term, start comparing both high-interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.If the rate holdsCompare accounts and ensure youre aware of whats on offer in the market. The opinions expressed in this article should not be taken as financial advice, or a recommendation of any financial product. advance. A move to 3% today would be a seven year high. The OCR sets overnight interest rates banks pay, that in turn influences short term funding costs in the New Zealand economy. While compensation arrangements may affect the order, position or placement of product information, it doesn't influence our assessment of those products. The RBNZ is set to deliver the announcement on Wednesday, with a mid-tier raise widely expected amongst analysts. The dollar has fallen from US70.18c yesterday just before the announcement the Delta variant had arrived in NZ. The latest quarterly inflation stats last month didn't exactly deliver the news the market (or anyone to be honest) was hoping for - with inflation tracking at 7.2%, as opposed to the 6.5% that was anticipated. The RBNZ today opted to maintain monetary policy settings and keep the official cash rate at 0.25%. Financial Stability Reports (FSR). Usually fourth Wednesday in February, May, What will this mean for you? Finder is committed to editorial independence. "For now, we are sticking to our call for a sequential path of 25bp hikes and a 2.75 percent early 2023 OCR peak. 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You can subscribe to our economists regular interest rate reports, or read them online: And for a global outlook, our investment partners at BlackRock recently released their. - OCR & MPS Media conference & live-stream 14 April - Our goal is to create the best possible product, and your thoughts, ideas and suggestions play a major role in helping us identify opportunities to improve. If the RBNZ goes aggressive on Wednesday, they are just increasingly the likelihood of a hard landing. US Treasury yields fall post CPI but then reverses much of that price action, NZ's largest bank raises fixed and floating home loan rates, savings account rates, and term deposit rates in a broad response to the recent RBNZ OCR rises, Mortgage rates were unmoved by the RBNZs big hike as traders bet any increase now will be matched with a cut later, US Treasury yields push higher, ahead of key CPI data tonight.